Sat. Oct 31 8AM

Not much different from yesterday….The hurricane season looks like it has one last hurrah.  An area of showers in the Central Caribbean has become more concentrated and models are forecasting a development in the next few days.  This system most likely will threaten the jungles of Eastern Nicauragua or Eastern Honduras in 3-4 days.   The only question is: Will it press inland into Central America or will it meander around the Western Caribbean before heading north to possibly impact Cuba, peninsular Florida, or the Bahamas ?  Access northward to the U.S. will be blocked for about a week due to NW flow aloft and building high pressure over the SE.

89 Comments

  1. Gary Borgstede

    Thank you Dave for helping to keep us informed on these potentially severe weather developments!

  2. dgilh51@gmail.com

    You are welcome. Please let your friends and business colleagues know about the site.

  3. Joan

    Thanks, Dave
    Keep us in prayer, please as well as in information!
    Looks like cape fear area will take a hit

  4. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Joan: I agree, not looking good as models have shifted westward. The odds are pretty good that you will be impacted. However, this will be a Category 1 or 2 storm that moves quickly from SW to NE – not like a slower moving Florence that came in from E to W. Rainfall amounts will be lower. Plus, you are more than 3 days out. Too early to say with confidence that it will be a direct hit.

  5. Sharon

    Oh Goodness! Here we go. Prayers for everyone!

  6. Sharon

    Joey just asked me what you think about two storms being in the Gulf with regard to tide surges?

  7. Annette Record

    Oh no praying this doesnt happen here or anywhere. Im in ms on the coast. My sons are planning on flying in Sunday night for over a week.

  8. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Surge is a pretty localized phenomena dependent of factors such as bottom depth near the coast. I don’t think having two storms in the Gulf is going to make that much of a difference – water will still be the highest near and within 50 miles or so to the right of landfall of each with a minimum in between. If we get threatened, I will post graphics showing maximum possible surge from the hurricane center.

  9. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Understand – keep up with the weather, too early to tell.

  10. Sharon

    Thanks for that info on storm surge. I’ll pass it on to Joey.

  11. Roberta Cartaginese

    You are my Nash Roberts weatherman ⛈

  12. Janet

    Thanks! I’ve been reading your updates to get the latest news. Bit anxious as we leave town early Monday for the week. I do feel badly that my daughter will be home alone to face any possible hurricanes.

  13. Anonymous

    Thank you Dave for your forecast as always- we rely on it!

  14. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Once we so how Laura looks like as it encounters Cuba by late Sunday or early Monday, models should zero in on an accurate track so we should be able to give you an idea of the impact here.

  15. dgilh51@gmail.com

    You are welcome

  16. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Thanks, but there was only one Nash. A different era with different tools and skill sets.

  17. Randy Craighead

    Thank you David for these excellent diagnostics explained in laymen’s terms. Praying for everyone’s protection!

  18. dgilh51@gmail.com

    You are welcome – it’s challenging to know exactly what tone to take in these situations.

  19. Janet

    Thank you for updates. Still hoping to fly out tomorrow AM.

  20. Sharon

    This is going to be a tough call whether to evacuate for Laura in such little time, for sure. Prayers it doesn’t intensify that we would need to evacuate. Our Lady if Prompt Succor, hasten you help us.
    Thank you for your weather updates.

  21. Jay Jenkins

    Thanks David!!! You are certainly one of my heros at this time of year. I love the fact that we can count on you to help us understand the true local (i.e. Slidell and surrounding areas) impacts of the storms. It is a great help in making decisions and keeping the stress factor at the right level!! You are a tremendous asset to all of us!!!!

  22. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Looking a lot better now that models are pointing Laura to the west – see latest post

  23. Layne Mouch

    Thanks David. It’s refreshing to be able to have your well-seasoned and straight forward evaluation of our weather conditions in a time when so many media sources seem to be rather bent on sensationalism.

    Stay safe and blessed!

  24. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Jay: Thanks. You’re welcome.

  25. Andrew Lagarde

    Thanks David, we are over on MS Gulf Coast, your reports are really good!!!

  26. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Andrew:

    Good to hear from my favorite student of physics and glad you love the forecasts. I just finished developing an online meteorology course for Liberty and will teach it for them this fall. I’ll have to give you a call sometime….

  27. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Layne:

    Nice to hear from you and thanks!

  28. Jeffrey Collins

    I love seeing your updates and always share with friends and family! Sorry for being a bad student in high school!

  29. Brett Chapel

    Thank you Dave G!

  30. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Happy you like my forecasts. You are not alone in finding high school challenging – So many guys do – many need a more direct, hands-on, vocational approach first. Then, later in life, they can take the business, computer, and communication courses they need to succeed. Happy to hear from you!

  31. dgilh51@gmail.com

    You are welcome. Your dad must really be enjoying himself – haven’t seen him in over a year! Say Hi.

  32. Sharon

    Looking better! Don’t wanna wish Laura on our neighbors, but let’s hope that stays on a westerly track. Really praying it does not intensify, too unreasonably! Love having a personal meteorologist that skips all the hype! Thanks, David!

  33. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Sharon:

    You are welcome. There are some remote areas of Western Louisiana where Laura can plow ashore to minimize human impact.

  34. Mike McKim

    Shreveport for Thursday? Asking for a friend;)

  35. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Laura will probably track close to Shreveport on Thursday after it makes landfall somewhere in Western LA. Even though its well inland, tropical storm force winds are still possible with heavy rain. Not a pretty day.

  36. Anonymous

    Dodged one, now on to dodging #2! Although becoming a major hurricane part of it doesn’t look too good.

  37. dgilh51@gmail.com

    I’d be quite surprised if Laura heads towards SE Louisiana. Models typically get landfall correct within 60 or 80 miles 2 1/2 days ahead of time if its a hurricane and they are all pointing towards Beaumont/Port Arthur & Lake Charles.

  38. Annette Record

    Good Morning David I’m so grateful for your no hype posts and insight! Thank you, us being new to the south we are learning a lot and your help is so appreciated. The news just exasperates everything and creates so much stress in me. What are your thoughts on Laura and MS coast? We are in Long Beach. Or is it still too early? Still praying these storms break up and cause no to minmal damage to propery and no life lost any where.

  39. Carolyn King

    You say more in 1 paragraph than the tv channels say in hours of “maybe this maybe that”. Only to make us nervous. Thank you David!

  40. dgilh51@gmail.com

    You’re welcome.

  41. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Annette:

    Though Laura will be a dangerous storm, it is headed to West Louisiana and extreme East Texas. You should not see any impacts from Laura.

    For future storms….If you are new to the region, the important number to know is your elevation. This will determine whether you need to evacuate. Sure, you can wait until authorities tell you – but it’s nice to get a sense of this a day or two before then to board up and leave before the crowds do and contraflow restrictions set in. I wrote a guide on how to prepare for a hurricane which includes the evacuation decision. Can I email you a copy?

  42. James Kjellin

    I would like a copy of that guide please.

  43. dgilh51@gmail.com

    James:
    Thanks! Will do – a little light reading….

  44. Sharon

    Thanks! Prayers for our neighbors!

  45. Danny Keith Phillips sr.

    Thanks for the great analysis of Laura. You must have drank the same water as Bob Break

  46. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Danny:

    Ha! I got a degree in meteorology from a Big Ten school just like Bob. He went to Michigan – I went to Penn State.

    Thanks….David

  47. Patti Walker

    Sorry, that Vermilion Bay question was from me! Thanks!

  48. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Patti:

    The problem there will be surge – about 10 feet expected. Elevation in classic downtown area is about 10-11 feet, so yards may get wet. Old homes may not if they are raised. Further away from the bayou land slopes away and elevations drop to 5 feet. That’s where I’d expect to see houses flooded. Winds may top out about 60 mph with gusts to hurricane force – nothing an R.M. Young couldn’t handle. Power outages, trees down, minor structural damage.

  49. Patti Walker

    Thanks, Dave!

  50. Joan

    Thanks, Dave

  51. Sharon

    Thank you! Continued prayers for our neighbors.

  52. dgilh51@gmail.com

    You are welcome.

  53. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Anytime.

  54. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Will do.

  55. Linda

    Thanks Dave for keeping us informed on Slidell

  56. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Linda:
    You are welcome.

  57. Sharon

    Prayers! It appears we will not dodge this one. Thanks for your forecasts.

  58. Linda Hill

    Thanks Dave for all you do for us here in Slidell.

  59. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Linda:
    You are welcome.

  60. Andrew

    Thanks David, from Mississipi Gulf Coast!

  61. John Wadsworth

    Thanks Dave.

  62. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Anytime, Andrew.

  63. dgilh51@gmail.com

    You’re welcome.

  64. Sharon

    It’s sounding like no one knows if and when that easterly turn will take place
    And if it does seems like it will be very close to landfall? And is it gonna reach a Cat 2? Seems that’s not a definite either. A wait & see kinda last minute. Nail biter! ‍♀️ Continued prayers!

  65. Sharon

    Thank you! Looking much better for us! Looking forward to the weekend with less humidity! Have a wonderful day, David!

  66. Gail Bruce

    The eyewall of the storm came across where we live in Pensacola as a Category 2 about 4-6 am. The wind and rain were very intense throughout the night. We are grateful we didn’t lose power and from what we can tell, without being able to go outside yet due to some wind and rain, we don’t have any damage. Very relieved it is about gone!

  67. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Thanks for the report. You either have underground utilities, live close to a substation, or your utility company did a great job of trimming trees – unusual not to lose power. What part of Pensacola do you live in?

  68. Keith Morel

    Thank you David!

  69. dgilh51@gmail.com

    You’re welcome

  70. Linda Hill

    Thanks Dave for all you do

  71. Sharon

    Thanks, David. Here we go again! ‍♀️

  72. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Sharon:

    Yes – a long and very active season. But every one is different.

  73. Gail Bruce

    Might be too early to tell, but do you think Pensacola will get hit again?

  74. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Gail:

    Looks unlikely. Models keep shifting west and this situation is more like Laura than Sally. See this morning’s discussion. Delta would have to stall out completely in the Western Gulf to make a turn that profound.

  75. Anonymous

    Thank you Dave. You seem to be right on target. How I hate to see Lake Charles hit again, we are grateful Pensacola is not going to be.

  76. Gail Bruce

    Thank you Dave. Your forecast seems right on target.

  77. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Thank you. I was privileged to get degrees from two of the best schools in meteorology — Penn State and Florida State — plus had a 30-year year career as a marine meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Hopefully, Lake Charles will lie just to the west of the track, which means winds will be 60 or 70 mph instead of 100. Still, with all of those blue-tarped roofs, Delta will do more damage than usual.

  78. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Thanks, Gail. Need to say Hi next time we buzz down I-10.

  79. Gail Bruce

    Hi Dave. Here we go again. We are supposed to meet some friends in New Orleans on Tuesday. They are flying from Dallas. Because they have never been to New Orleans we are to be their tour guides. Our hotel states we have to cancel 48 hours before arrival for refund (which would be tomorrow). Trying to figure out out if this is going to be a major storm and would it ruin our time. They leave Friday morning to go back.

    Thoughts, or is it too early to tell.

  80. Larry Welch

    David, thanks for all the info.

  81. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Larry:

    My privilege.

    David Gilhousen

  82. Sharon

    We’re in Cashiers, NC. Of course, Joey is worried! We’re supposed to drive home on Thursday and he’s concerned we will be driving thru the hurricane back home. Not that it would be hurricane force winds, but probably windy and rainy driving home. Trying to decide if we should drive home tomorrow? ‍♀️

  83. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Sharon: Driving home Thursday will not be a big problem – you will run into a few hours of moderate to heavy rain early in the day and then it will all be over.
    Dave

  84. Britt Hinshaw

    Why do they issue hurricane warnings when they forecast winds much below a hurricane level? It doesn’t make any sense to me.

  85. Marilyn Medina

    Thank you for your thorough information with each hurricane and storm! Its been my saving grace to keep calm and informed.

  86. HmTcK4

    648697 320094Its hard to find knowledgeable people on this topic however you sound like you know what youre talking about! Thanks 475967

  87. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Marilyn: You are welcome. Glad I can help.

  88. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Britt:

    Several thoughts here. First, there may be some part of your county or parish, perhaps bordering the ocean or a tidal lake, that they expect will receive hurricane force winds, then the warning appears. Second, meteorology operates with a larger margin of error than engineering. If there’s a decent possibility that hurricane force winds will occur, even though it may be less than 50 percent, they will issue a warning. My argument is that they over-warn a bit too much — it’s the “No Surpise” Weather Service at the expense of the “Cry Wolf” Weather Service.

  89. dgilh51@gmail.com

    Thanks. MS in Meteorology from Florida State, BS from Penn State, career as a marine meteorologist. Still learning and I don’t get them all correct.

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